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PoE just broke its concurrent player record with ~267k. D3 is lucky to break 25k.
I guess it depends on how you measure success. D3 has been dead in the water for years now. It pretty much failed. I imagine a lot of Path of Exile's success is due to how Blizzard dropped the ball. And most of the hardcore players left D3 for it.
I'd be more curious to compare about how many people were actively playing Diablo 2 vs PoE. But if they can pull themselves together and make D4 more like D2, and it seems that's what they want, they will easily surpass PoE, both in sales overall and numer of players. PoE just by design will not appeal to mainstream audiences.
Also, it's a bit weird to compare the "success" of one game over another by comparing how many people are playing it, when one of them is free.
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