BG3 So, About BG3 dice rolls….

[sakichop]

I’m curious how others are faring in regards to dice rolls. I can honestly say that I have rolled more critical misses (1) in my limited time with BG3 than I have in all other DND CRPG’s or table top games. Miss rate seems high and I also find that certain skill checks that I have done several times from replaying always roll low on the first and I need to use inspirations to pass them.

This even happens with 85-95% hit chance. I am still winning fights and have only been wiped once when I was somewhere I shouldn't have been but the dice rolls often feel fixed rather than random. Anyone else feeling this.

Tried it with karmic dice on and off. With it on I do get less critical misses but missing over all still seems high for 85-95% chances.

Curious if others are finding dice rolls to be off or if I’m just being a baby?

 

[Couchpotato]

With a little mod, some editing, or a trainer there are no missed dice rolls.

 

[JFarrell71]

Not going to call you a baby, but if anything I wish I missed rolls more often. I roll 1's no more often than math would indicate.

This is a a very common phenomenon, though. I've yet to see a game in which die rolls are a thing where people don't think the game is conspiring against them.

 

[sakichop]

True but before turning on karmic dice I rolled 5 critical misses in a row. I would bet that if I rolled a d20 for 1 hour a day everyday for a year I wouldn’t get 5 ones in a row.

I agree with you though when ever a computer is rolling vs rolling a real die I think it’s probably weighted. I feel the same way in madden when it seems you drop the ball, fumble or get a penalty in critical situations much more often than non critical situations.

It doesn’t really bother me too much in combat because as I said I’m not losing fights because of it it’s more the skill checks because I refuse to save scum and I live with what I get.

I’m definitely not ruling out that it’s all in my head that’s why I wanted to see other people experiences.

 

[JDR13]

It's like being at the casino. You always remember the losing streak more.

 

[sakichop]

It's like being at the casino. You always remember the losing streak more.

True but at the casino I have nothing but losing streaks. except once I couldn’t lose, ended up winning enough on the slots to pay for my entire vegas vacation and had a little bit to spare.

 

[JFarrell71]

Five crit misses in a row is pretty crazy. Maybe the kharmic dice are broken. I've been using the regular rolls.

Edit: sorry, I misread that. If I rolled five 1's in a row I'd start to wonder too.

Btw, since you mentioned Madden: one of my all time least favorite gaming related things ever is rubber banding, where in racing games or sports games they make you suck proportionally to how far ahead you are to keep things close. I don't know why anyone would like that, or think someone else would like that. It makes the entire enterprise pointless.

 

[Warmark]

It's like being at the casino. You always remember the losing streak more.

Ain't that the truth..my many trips to Vegas are testament to that fact.

 

[HellRazor]

This is a a very common phenomenon, though. I've yet to see a game in which die rolls are a thing where people don't think the game is conspiring against them.

What's really funny is that every computer RPG in existence generates random numbers in its mechanics - so there are always "die rolls" taking place, even if you can't see it!

 

[JFarrell71]

What's really funny is that every computer RPG in existence generates random numbers in its mechanics - so there are always "die rolls" taking place, even if you can't see it!

Yeah, there's definitely something very pointed about seeing that big, juicy "92% chance to hit" number right on the screen that riles people up when they miss. Even moreso when one miss can be the difference between life and death, like in Xcom.

 

[sakichop]

Five crit misses in a row is pretty crazy. Maybe the kharmic dice are broken. I've been using the regular rolls.

Edit: sorry, I misread that. If I rolled five 1's in a row I'd start to wonder too.

Btw, since you mentioned Madden: one of my all time least favorite gaming related things ever is rubber banding, where in racing games or sports games they make you suck proportionally to how far ahead you are to keep things close. I don't know why anyone would like that, or think someone else would like that. It makes the entire enterprise pointless.

Yes, don't get me started on madden. Unfortunately, until 2K or someone else is allowed to make nfl simulation games it's all I have for my football fix. I think EA will mess up enough that the NFL will open up the license They are already letting 2k make an arcade type game hopefully simulation won't be too far behind.

 

[Redglyph]

I can't say that I feel a trend in one way or another so far. I've had a few 1s and 20s, but nothing odd. I think I had 2 critical misses in a row, once. I may have had 2 critical successes in a row and forgot about it since it's usually less marking without the feeling of unfairness.

That's an impression I had in Solasta, on the other hand. I even wrote down the outcomes during a short combat and there was an offset, but too few values to make it conclusive. Maybe write them down to convince yourself one way or another (I wish there was a log file for that).

 

[Drithius]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqL9R5PqE20


That being said, the chance for 5 crit hits/misses in a row is exceedingly low. 1/20^5 = 1 in 3.2 million. So, see if it happens again

 

[lackblogger]

I have reason to believe what you're seeing is Drama Dice.

Someone at some point invented a dice algorithm for computer games which produces the correct number of rolls per percentage chance over x 1000 rolls, but ensures that during times of particular dramatic importance it will give you the more extreme rolls.

For example, Bad guy has 50 hp left, all your gang of four hit for an average of 15, then the last to act will roll the 1, leaving bad guy alive for one more turn. Especially so if the guy you're melee'ing it with has very few hit-points left.

But the intention isn't to be mean, pre se, as in that final turn the bad guy will then miss as well. It's just to create that extra bit of drama.

A good example of how this can be used when balancing can be seen when trying out a fighter with 3 attacks per turn versus a fighter with just 2 attacks per turn. In the former, one of the attacks will probably miss, but in the latter case they tend to hit much more regularly. Also conveniently providing different players with different experiences, so the secret code is less detectable.

 

[Couchpotato]

Ah yes fond memerios of THACO and whiffle batting your foe in BG 1&2. I've seen a few companions miss their hits, and sometimes seen one hit kill strikes.

 

[Vaelith]

I had Karmic Die off from the beginning and I didn't observe any glaring deviation from pure RNG. Some good streaks, some bad streaks, and all in all what you'd expect from getting 1 result out of 20 every time you do any check. A 5% chance for something to happen means it will still happen pretty commonly.

 

[sakichop]

I have reason to believe what you're seeing is Drama Dice.

Someone at some point invented a dice algorithm for computer games which produces the correct number of rolls per percentage chance over x 1000 rolls, but ensures that during times of particular dramatic importance it will give you the more extreme rolls.

For example, Bad guy has 50 hp left, all your gang of four hit for an average of 15, then the last to act will roll the 1, leaving bad guy alive for one more turn. Especially so if the guy you're melee'ing it with has very few hit-points left.

But the intention isn't to be mean, pre se, as in that final turn the bad guy will then miss as well. It's just to create that extra bit of drama.

A good example of how this can be used when balancing can be seen when trying out a fighter with 3 attacks per turn versus a fighter with just 2 attacks per turn. In the former, one of the attacks will probably miss, but in the latter case they tend to hit much more regularly. Also conveniently providing different players with different experiences, so the secret code is less detectable.

You may be on to something here. I could definitely see this being a thing. It makes me think of the souls and souls like games I 've played. You will be fighting a boss watching their health go down and by how much then they get down to what you think should just be one more hit. You land that hit thinking you've killed them but instead their health goes down to a sliver. I actually died a couple time due to that but learned quickly to fight until they fall instead of paying attention to the health bar.

Kinda interesting it seems most of you don't notice any shenanigans so It's probably in my head. I was fine actually until the 5 critical misses in a row with 2 thieves having advantage. I was like WTF. I also think as mentioned above putting that percentage up there and you see 95% you expect to hit. (it drove me nuts in Xcom as well) I think I'd be better without the percentages.

I'm generally not very trusting anyway. So not seeing the dice rolls and knowing that they can bake whatever they want into their algorithm makes me question it.

 

[wolfgrimdark]

I have karmic dice OFF and haven't seen any issues. Decent mix of 1's and 20's with lots in between.

 

[Vaelith]

I'd love to see an experiment from someone, noting down every roll they get during a whole playthrough and then posting the results to compare.

The thing with "feelings" is that they are that, feelings, and while a good thing to have, they are emotional and biased and generally don't align with reality. It's why we don't use feelings to put satellites in orbit.

Who knows, maybe the die are actually loaded to provoke more eventful/exciting situations.

 

[Pladio]

It's funny how people don't realise that rolling two 2s in a row is just as hard as two 1s but you don't see people pay attention to that either.

The odds of rolling a 15 and then a 2 specifically are also the same.

People only seem to attach special attention to very specific patterns they believe are mathematically any different.

They aren't.



Basically, unless you start logging 1000 results your numbers are likely going to be very random unless the rng is badly created. With modern computers, making a good rng isn't that complicated anymore.

Even excel's rng works quite well.

If you generate 100 sets of 5 numbers from 1 to 20 you will end up with quite a few distributions that don't seem random.

But if you generate a 100 sets of 1000 numbers, most sets will have pretty good distributions. If you then create a 100 sets of 100k numbers it's very unlikely any of them will turn out to be a whole bunch of only 1s.