The war in Europe

[Couchpotato]

Lukashenko warns of Belarusian ‘combat readiness’: 'If Russia collapses, all of us will die'

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told state media Tuesday that his military was brought to "combat readiness" in reaction to the Wagner Group revolt.

www.foxnews.com

Crazy theory what if Prigozhin will take over the Belarusian armed forces and attack Ukraine? Remember after his failed one day coup he was exiled to the country.Hmm..

 

[SveNitoR]

Lukashenko warns of Belarusian ‘combat readiness’: 'If Russia collapses, all of us will die'

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told state media Tuesday that his military was brought to "combat readiness" in reaction to the Wagner Group revolt.

www.foxnews.com

Crazy theory what if Prigozhin will take over the Belarusian armed forces and attack Ukraine? Remember after his failed one day coup he was exiled to the country.Hmm..

Hmm... Interesting thought, but I doubt it. The problem for him, would be that the Belarusian armed forces allegedly have a lot of friends and relatives in Ukraine, so many would probably not want to fight. Not a good starting point.

 

[Pladio]

Lukashenko warns of Belarusian ‘combat readiness’: 'If Russia collapses, all of us will die'

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told state media Tuesday that his military was brought to "combat readiness" in reaction to the Wagner Group revolt.

www.foxnews.com

Crazy theory what if Prigozhin will take over the Belarusian armed forces and attack Ukraine? Remember after his failed one day coup he was exiled to the country.Hmm..

Everything is possible but seeing as Lukashenko has done everything he can to not actually be in the war, I would assume that's very unlikely.

However it would certainly make Ukraine fighting on two fronts very difficult.

 

[Couchpotato]

Some more articles.

Senior Russian general knew about Prigozhin's plans, New York Times reports

General Sergey Surovikin, the deputy commander of Russia's military operations in Ukraine, had advance knowledge that the mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning a rebellion against Moscow's defence officials, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

Wagner leader Prigozhin to be investigated for $2 billion pay in a year, Putin says

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that the finances of Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's catering firm would be investigated after his mutiny, saying Wagner and its founder had received almost $2 billion from Russia in the past year.

www.reuters.com

East Europe NATO allies say Wagner troops in Belarus spell trouble

Eastern European NATO countries on Tuesday warned that a move of Wagner's Russian mercenary troops to Belarus would create greater regional instability, but NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance is ready to defend itself against any threat.

www.reuters.com

See even NATO is worried about Wagner troops in Belarus.

 

[SveNitoR]

Some more articles.

Senior Russian general knew about Prigozhin's plans, New York Times reports

General Sergey Surovikin, the deputy commander of Russia's military operations in Ukraine, had advance knowledge that the mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning a rebellion against Moscow's defence officials, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

Wagner leader Prigozhin to be investigated for $2 billion pay in a year, Putin says

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that the finances of Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's catering firm would be investigated after his mutiny, saying Wagner and its founder had received almost $2 billion from Russia in the past year.

www.reuters.com

East Europe NATO allies say Wagner troops in Belarus spell trouble

Eastern European NATO countries on Tuesday warned that a move of Wagner's Russian mercenary troops to Belarus would create greater regional instability, but NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance is ready to defend itself against any threat.

www.reuters.com

See even NATO is worried about Wagner troops in Belarus.

Yeah, I'd also worry if 25k battle-hardened, violence loving mercenaries redeployed closer to me.

Edit: It seems like a base is being built for 8k soldiers in Belarus, so less than 25k.

 

[SveNitoR]

Here is some qualified speculation by ISW about the situation.

 

[Couchpotato]

Anyone believe this story on a tabloid site?

Putin Narrowly Escapes Assassination Attempt as Russian Secret Service Thwarts Moscow Bridge Explosion

Vladimir Putin had his secret service to thank for thwarting a suspected assassination attempt involving a bridge in Moscow.

radaronline.com

Also this.

Camp for around 8,000 Wagner mercenaries set up in Belarus - Belarusian OSINT group

New satellite images made by Planet Labs PBC emerged on 30 June, showing about 300 tents at the alleged location of a field camp for Wagner mercenaries in Belarus.

euromaidanpress.com

Camp spotted on suspected Wagner site in Belarus

A detailed satellite image taken for the BBC shows hundreds of new tent-like structures at Belarus military base

www.bbc.com

Zelensky: Ukrainian forces have killed 21,000 Wagner troops

In an interview with the Spanish news outlet El Mundo on June 30, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that 21,000 Wagner soldiers have been killed by Ukrainian forces, and over 80,000 have been injured.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Pladio]

Who knoes about the assassination attempt. Many people dislike him, so it's very possible.

In the meantime, seems like I wasn't entirely wrong. Several Russian generals have not been seen and new ones have been promoted. Looks like a purge is underway.

 

[SveNitoR]

Who knoes about the assassination attempt. Many people dislike him, so it's very possible.

In the meantime, seems like I wasn't entirely wrong. Several Russian generals have not been seen and new ones have been promoted. Looks like a purge is underway.

That must be horrible for morale. Anyone in Russia's armed forces must have escape plans ready, since they never know if anyone else has their back.

 

[Couchpotato]

That must be horrible for morale. Anyone in Russia's armed forces must have escape plans ready, since they never know if anyone else has their back.

Well when you are an officier who witholds intelligence vital to state security your a risk. Still we all know it's just another tactic of Putin to install loyal lapdogs.

Anyway this is nothing new as Stalin purged the army multiple times, and yes it was the reason his army fought so badly at the start of WW2. History repeats itself.

 

[Pladio]

It's the problem of wanting/needing loyalty over capability/skills/experience.

 

[SveNitoR]

A Swedish analyst has some thoughts about mercenary groups in Russia in general, and the Wagner group in particular:

https://www.ui.se/globalassets/ui.se-eng/publications/sceeus/the-ghost-of-civil-war-in-russia.pdf

 

[SveNitoR]

Well, it seems as if Turkey and Hungary might agree to let Sweden into Nato after all. Will be interesting to see if that is actually true.

 

[Redglyph]

Well, it seems as if Turkey and Hungary might agree to let Sweden into Nato after all. Will be interesting to see if that is actually true.

Wow. That's good news, but I suppose Turkey didn't do it out of sheer friendliness.

 

[SveNitoR]

Wow. That's good news, but I suppose Turkey didn't do it out of sheer friendliness.

No, probably not.

According to what they say officially, Sweden has agreed to more cooperation around "terrorism", which likely means that Turkish dissidents should leave Sweden before they get extradited :/

Sweden has taken a slight turn towards supporting totalitarianism in the name of a Nato membership. I really, really don't like that. Even if it just is a symbolical agreement, it still gives Erdoğan a symbolic victory to strengthen his rule.

And Nato has agreed to more internal cooperation around terrorism as well. Unknown what that really means.

And Sweden has to try to get Turkey into EU. But that's not gonna happen no matter what Sweden says. At least until Erdoğan leaves power behind and democratic reforms pick up.

Edit:
There might be some things involved from the US as well, maybe? Allowing them to buy F16 had been on the Turkey wishlist for quite a while.

 

[SveNitoR]

Just read that the EU has been involved in the negotiations. They've basically signaled to Erdoğan that if he treats Sweden's issues fairly, they will treat Turkish issues fairly. And the relations between Greece and Turkey is better than in a long time now.

 

[Redglyph]

That must leave a bitter taste. Needs must, I suppose.

I sure hope we'll never see a Turkey as it is now in the EU.

 

[OverIt]

Who knoes about the assassination attempt. Many people dislike him, so it's very possible.

In the meantime, seems like I wasn't entirely wrong. Several Russian generals have not been seen and new ones have been promoted. Looks like a purge is underway.

Russia has a big problem with corruption in terms of ammunition and weapons being sold away. Its part of the reason why many generals get killed silently.

Putin revolt: top officers sell Russian arms on black market

VLADIMIR PUTIN'S top officers have defied him by selling vital military equipment including tank engines, fuel and tires on the black market, a war expert has confirmed.

www.express.co.uk

 

[Pladio]

I'm not surprised somehow

 

[Couchpotato]

I'm not surprised somehow

You would think Putin would implement reforms and root out corruption, but nah Soviet playbook all over again. Seems he and Russia still haven't learned a single lesson.