The Congress Elections 2022

[largh]

Time to throw some flame.

I didn't manage to necro the presidential election thread. Starting a new one: the Congress Elections. The Democrats seem to have begun the game already by investigating Trump's coup attempt.

A Republican congressman sought for grace after the coup attempt

Trump denied to order the national guard to defend Capitol and Pence had to do it. Trump said that Pence could possibly have deserved to be hanged as the mobs shouted afterwards. Just some picks from the video.

Opinions? Can the Democrats still keep their flow and win in Republican states by milking the coup attempt?

Can Trump still run for president in 2024?

Popcorn time (for me)!

 

[dteowner]

The economy hasn't been this wrecked since Carter. It took Biden and his left wing cronies a mere 2 years to dismantle all the gains of multiple administrations, including Obama. Unless the dems can find another George Floyd event to fuel their identity politics angles, they're likely to lose in a landslide. The media is frantically trying to help out by slanting the narrative over guns and abortion (they tried on immigration but that backfired) but people still vote their wallets first.

 

[Drithius]

Democrats are divided between unrealistic and only mostly unrealistic camps. The Republicans are (and have been) united in power and misinformation.

Unity tends to win over chaos.

Meanwhile, the government continues to go to shit. There is no compromise, greater and greater polarization (thanks, OUTRAGE news & gerrymandering), and worsening ignorance.

The country's been slowly rotting from self-interest for the past 50 years.

(Also, regarding the orange blowhard, it's absolutely incredible he isn't in prison, let alone being talked about as a future candidate for re-election).

 

[fadedc]

The party in power almost always gets wrecked in mid-term elections. I don't expect this time to be any different.

 

[dteowner]

The country's been slowly rotting from self-interest for the past 50 years.

So, at the risk of a cross-topic bane, if we're seeing a redux of the fall of the Roman Empire, who will be our barbarian tribes?

 

[Drithius]

Ourselves.

 

[Pladio]

I'm not super close to this, but as per usual, my understanding is that mid-terms tend to be bad for the incumbent party holding the presidency.

So this is likely going to reduce or totally remove the Democrats' 50/50 split in the Senate and probably make the House majority very slim.

They will regret not having done more with the 2 years they had.

My main concern from far away is that another Trump might win the presidency in a few years' time.

 

[Couchpotato]

The senate might go back to being Republican correct, but congress has a good chance as well. Only because of rigged redistricting added more republican seats.

Anyway Drithius and dteowner make good points above. It will mostly happen because the economy is in shambles, and the middle class if it still exists is pissed off..

As for Trump in 2024 hell no pick someones else please. I'll settle for Ron DeSantis.

 

[dteowner]

The senate might go back to being Republican correct, but congress has a good chance as well. Only because of rigged redistricting added more republican seats.

Anyway Drithius and dteowner make good points above. It will mostly happen because the economy is in shambles, and the middle class if it still exists is pissed off..

As for Trump in 2024 hell no pick someones else please. I'll settle for Ron DeSantis.

With the way things are going, we'll be able to hang a "Not Biden" sign on a houseplant and win. About the only way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory would be to let Trump back into the mix. The energy he'd get from the far right would be drowned out by the left gaining a single point of focus and the middle, including the moderate right, would probably not be as willing to hold their collective nose and cast that vote like they were when the alternative was Hillary and Trump was an unknown quantity.

 

[dteowner]

Ourselves.

So civil war, eh? I could see that.

Those assault rifles might have more value than they claim.

 

[Stingray]

I'm not super close to this, but as per usual, my understanding is that mid-terms tend to be bad for the incumbent party holding the presidency.

Yeah, but there's more going on here than just that. Biden is the most unpopular president at this point in his presidency (ie 16 months in) in the history of polling - for reasons mostly already detailed by dteowner. It's gonna be a Republican blowout, but likely not as big of a blowout as '94 or even '10 because of the amount of gerrymandering that's in place on both sides these days. The vast majority of Congressional districts have a pre-planned winner (party-wise). There's less seats in play than there were in the famous blowouts of the past.

 

[Drithius]

So civil war, eh? I could see that.

Those assault rifles might have more value than they claim.

Not what I meant. Right or Left, our own stupidity and short-sightedness is to blame for decline - imagined and otherwise; ie., the 'Vandals' won't come from outside.

 

[JDR13]

The economy hasn't been this wrecked since Carter.

Huh? Were you hiding in a closet during the G.W. years?

 

[dteowner]

Huh? Were you hiding in a closet during the G.W. years?

OK, I'll give you that one.

 

[fadedc]

My money is more on a cyber punk rise of the megacorps situation. The political system collapses but there are no barbarians at the gate and we just end up in a dystopia.

On the flip side when I look at Russia or China where a single leader can run their whole country into the ground and nobody can stand up to them, it makes me think that maybe our crazy divided political system isn't so bad after all.

 

[Capt. Huggy Face]

That's right, because what kind of fool volunteers to put is future in the hands of a single man, a politician no less? Oh, right, 40 percent of our country does…

 

[Ripper]

If we judge a presidency by how the economic state changed from the beginning of their term to the end, Bill Clinton wins hands down, at least in my lifetime. That really is indisputable. And Obama presided over a another massive improvement, from the verge of a depression to a half-decent economy. On those terms, both Dubya and Trump were rubbish, and Reagan not too great either.

So, if one holds that highly-principled conservative position of "hold your nose and think of your wallet", you should really be looking for a Clinton.

I'm not looking for a Clinton, because of course that's simple-minded. Both Bush and Trump faced disasters that trashed their performance. Trump's was pure bad luck, and the conditions that caused the financial crash were created over several administrations, by both parties essentially agreeing upon a neo-liberal ideology. And if we look at Carter, the guy inherited the White House from the Nixon-Ford Watergate administration, with the economy of the 1970s in a dire state, rampant stagflation, turmoil in the Middle East and oil markets, and so on.

It really is pretty daft to look at the performance of Presidents without reference to an understanding of the conditions in which they operate.

But I'm hoping (not with a great portion of my hope rations) that enough Americans will refuse to hold their noses, and actually respond to an open project to turn America into Orban's Hungary.

 

[notdart]

While Biden hasn't done the best job this is not completely fair. Sure if Trump had been in office he would have given Putin the green light to invade Ukraine and while Congress might have taken some options the sanctions if any would have been limited. This of course would have improved our economy. The issue is kind of weird but while the US has plenty of oil the oil companies charged based off of the international market which is sky rocketed due to the war and west sanctions on Russia. I.e, the oil companies are making a bucket load of cash at the expense of the American people.
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The secondary issue was transitions due to pandemic which increased demand. There are some other possible impacts such as the relief money pumped into the economy though I'm not 100% sure of these macro dynamics.
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On the other hand I view Jan 6 stuff as really unrelated to the elections. Trump belongs in jail and was imho horrible for the country. Yes the economy boomed under his administration but it was not sustainable and was going to eventually suffer a massive crash - his hope was that this crash would occur once he was out of office and he could pass the blame to someone else. There was other issues with Trump - the entire 'stolen election' crap. The election wasn't that close - it was actually far closer with Clinton but whatever.
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While I fully expect the Republicans to regain control do we really want a right wing republican party in control? They will of course do things like investigate Hunter and other political targets that serve little value (mind you I'm not a fan of Hunter and he should be in jail if he has committed a crime - but that is up to the DOJ); but he is not abusing his position in the govt. If you want a better similarly you could investigate Kushner or Ivanka for how they abused their positions in the govt.
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While I do think the Jan 6 hearings are a waste of time since 1/2 the country won't even bother to admit anything nefarious happened I do think what Trump did was quite serious breach of Democracy and therefore deserves to be investigate.
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Anyway it is what it is.

The economy hasn't been this wrecked since Carter. It took Biden and his left wing cronies a mere 2 years to dismantle all the gains of multiple administrations, including Obama. Unless the dems can find another George Floyd event to fuel their identity politics angles, they're likely to lose in a landslide. The media is frantically trying to help out by slanting the narrative over guns and abortion (they tried on immigration but that backfired) but people still vote their wallets first.

 

[notdart]

In many ways Ron Desantis is worse than Trump. I mean look at the petty political pay back we are seeing in Florida. It is enough to publically state you disagree with one of his policies for him to 'sick' the govt on you. He did this to Disney, Tampa Bay (who cares about sport teams), school districts and more. While I'm not a fan of some of the policies both sides have pushed in regards to Trans and others - i'm even less of a fan using the weight of the Govt to suppress free speech.

As for Trump in 2024 hell no pick someones else please. I'll settle for Ron DeSantis.

 

[Capt. Huggy Face]

DeSantis is a dictator in waiting, just another dumbass daddy figure.