The Congress Elections 2022

[JDR13]

As long as Biden is going to be the Democrats' nominee in '24, the Republicans will have a strong shot no matter what they do. He's historically terrible, and historically unpopular.

Then again, I don't think Biden will be running in '24 so we don't necessarily disagree

I thought Biden said he intends to run again.

I agree though. Biden running again, if that ends up being the case, is not a good thing for the Dems.

 

[Couchpotato]

I'm not familiar with this. Does a 51-49 give a clear advantage, or does it require all the 51 senators to be on the same page for that? (which may not be easy to enforce all the time?)

Correction it usually takes 60 votes to pass legislation in the Senate, but there is a loophole that allows 51 for certain laws. Though it can only be used once in a certain time period.

It's how Democrats pushed part of Biden's agenda the rest failed because not enough votes. It's what the founders call check and balance so no majority has an advantage.

Also the same reason why Democrats want to abolish the 60 vote and filibuster.

Nuclear option - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In the United States Senate, the nuclear option is a parliamentary procedure that allows the Senate to override a standing rule by a simple majority, avoiding the two-thirds supermajority normally required to invoke cloture on a resolution to amend Senate rules.

 

[OverIt]

What happened? I thought the Republicans were supposed to crush this?

Its honestly surprising that the dems didnt win. If people were willing to vote people in how have literal brain damage, i dont see how the repubs have a chance in 2024 even with Biden.

 

[Pladio]

So is this result good or bad for trump and his chances at re-election?

What I've read seems to indicate it's bad, but that he has no real challengers.

 

[Ripper]

I think DeSantis is a real challenger now. The thing to bear in mind is that many of the Republican politicians absolutely loathe Trump, feel like hostages to his seemingly indestructible appeal to the base, but are too craven to move against him. Loads of them know what he represents, and what he's doing, but most of them still form a sort of horrible human centipede attached to his backside. If enough of them start to see DeSantis as a way out of the Trump Zone, I think he could start to build a head of steam.

It really looks like a pretty poor showing for a midterms - probably well below the average number of wins expected at the midpoint, despite massive factors in their favour. I (and I suspect quite of few of them) think that's probably only explicable by a hugely repellent Trump effect (combined with the other politically foolhardy excesses) on folks outside of the Maga hardcore. I think, if the current face of Republicanism was someone relatively moderate, but strongly anti-woke, they would have crushed these midterms.

On top of that, the brightest spot for the GOP is that DeSantis' popularity in Florida seems to have turned it into a red state. I reckon there will be quite a few strategists thinking about how well he could work for them.

But I'm just thinking out loud. Who tries to predict anything in politics in these mad times?

 

[JDR13]

On top of that, the brightest spot for the GOP is that DeSantis' popularity in Florida seems to have turned it into a red state. I reckon there will be quite a few strategists thinking about how well he could work for them.

Florida was already a red state. Since 1980, Florida has been blue in only 3 elections.

 

[Ripper]

Florida was already a red state. Since 1980, Florida has been blue in only 3 elections.

I think that's still enough for it to be considered a swing state. I don't doubt your facts, but in all the US political commentary I've seen for years, Florida is talked about as a swing state.

Florida, once the nation's premier swing state, is now trending Republican

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is running for reelection against Democratic challenger Charlie Crist.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Stingray]

I think that's still enough for it to be considered a swing state. I don't doubt your facts, but in all the US political commentary I've seen for years, Florida is talked about as a swing state.

Florida, once the nation's premier swing state, is now trending Republican

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is running for reelection against Democratic challenger Charlie Crist.

www.cbsnews.com

Yeah, it has always been talked about as a swing state. Plus in their last governor election (2018), DeSantis only won by 0.4%, and in their last Senate election (2020), Rick Scott only won by 0.2%. So, while Republicans have come out on top more often than not, calling it a "red state" (until now) seems odd. By the way, in addition to the DeSantis and Rubio blowouts, I also saw someone mention that the last Democrat who held a statewide office in Florida (the agriculture commissioner) was defeated, and all Florida statewide officeholders are now Republican for the first time in about 150 years.

 

[Pladio]

Latest from FOX News is 49R-48D and 207R-183D.

 

[JDR13]

They can call Florida whatever they want, but the fact is that it's been mostly Republican for a long time now. Other than 2008 and 2012 which (just barely) went blue for Obama, this state has been won by a Democrat 1 time in 40+ years.

Tbh, I don't know where those votes for Obama came from. If you ever spend any time here, you'll know what I'm talking about.

 

[Drithius]

Tbh, I don't know where those votes for Obama came from. If you ever spend any time here, you'll know what I'm talking about.

It's quite a repugnant state - worse the further north you go. This state has contributed greatly to my overall mental fatigue these past years.

 

[Drithius]

So is this result good or bad for trump and his chances at re-election?

What I've read seems to indicate it's bad, but that he has no real challengers.

We'll see in another week, as that was when he is slated to come down the golden escalator in the sky again. I'm sure the narrative will become whatever it needs to be. Election fraud? Mitch McConnel bad? Aliens? Doesn't much matter.

 

[OverIt]

Mitch McConnel was always a war hawk. If Trump loses to Desantis somehow and Desantis wins 2024, I will bet money the world goes to WW3.

 

[largh]

Over 300 million residents which of at least 40% seem to believe in conspiracy theories rather than science. Only two parties opposing each other in every matter. Only three considerable candidates for the next president, two of which should slowly fade away enjoying their retirement instead of running for perhaps the most difficult job on the planet. Not to mention that one of them is quite obviously a psychopath while the other have all the odds to die of an old age while in the office if he gets elected again (unless he dies before the elections already).

The decline of the United States is obvious. When does the union collapse? Or can someone still save it?

If we take Rome as an analog, they turned into dictatorship and collapsed centuries later. There were civil wars before ditching democracy. Haven't seen those in the US yet, but we are not far from that, it seems?

 

[Couchpotato]

Well nothing last forever the rest of the world better be prepared.

Since your basing the fall of the US on Rome time for another Dark Age. Also no more wasted resources on being the world's police and bailing out foreign countries anymore.

Just remember that failed democracy still has a large military and Nuclear stockpile.

Maybe most of the population should learn Chinese.

 

[largh]

True, but wouldn't split of states be also a scenario to consider? I.e west coast and east coast forming their own unions, for instance?

Nothing good would follow from the collapse for us in Europe. Still hoping people in the US would get their shit together, but it doesn't look good from the outside.

 

[Couchpotato]

Well if we go down that route here is one predication but it's Russian.

 

[largh]

Ay, that seems like utter propaganda crap, although if US collapses, perhaps the entire world will be under Chinese influence after WW3. Who knows...

 

[Couchpotato]

There is a mod for a game called Kaiserreich for Heats of Iron 4 that has the second American Civil War but it was based in 1936. I highly recommend playing if you haven't.

Spoiler: Videos

 

[Ripper]

If the US gets to that point, I don't think folks will be lining up with muskets along state lines - I think it would just be a huge mess of escalating violence, that eventually gets so bad it's described as a civil war. Political assassinations, abductions, increasing terror attacks, militia attacks, kangaroo courts, imprisonment of political enemies and journalists - that sort of thing.

I do think there is a serious risk of a slide into that sort of mess. I think a lot of it comes down to how the Maga element behaves, particularly if they start to lose power through legitimate means. Underlying it is really some version of white replacement theory, where those folks fear having no power and having things imposed on them that they cannot combat through political means. But I think there is a smarter version of the right, who realise that demographic change doesn't have to mean that at all - immigrant minorities are often some of the most conservative folks you can find. That's another effect they've seen in Florida - major Republican gains among Latinos.