The Congress Elections 2022

[Stingray]

Actually, that was mostly expected until just a week or so before the election.
I had written down the numbers from the Economist polls - they were 51D-49R Senate and 221.4R-213.6D - I did forget to write down the date, but it was about 1 or 2 weeks ago.

51D-49R doesn't seem all that likely, although it's certainly possible. It's currently 48D-49R (putting Wisconsin in the R column - it's been called by some, but not all). Georgia is headed to a runoff in December, and Arizona and Nevada are still in play - we'll probably know the results of those two tomorrow.

Looks like the bookies are giving about an 85% chance of 50D-50R right now.

 

[Couchpotato]

Republicans have lost a senate seat as of right now. It's 46D-47R. As for congress I excepted bigger Republican gains but it's slowing down. It's 168D-199R

Guess we'll know more tomorrow.

Edit: My numbers are from the live Associated Press results.

 

[Ripper]

Well, it doesn't seem to be any kind of 'red wave'. In fact, given the economic conditions and Biden's low popularity, it looks like a pretty weak midterm performance.

My hope is that DeSantis had been boosted, whereas a little more of the bloom is off the Trump rose. Perhaps increases the chances of a Republican split when Trump runs.

 

[Stingray]

Republicans have lost a senate seat as of right now. It's 46D-47R.

The states still in play are Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona - and also Wisconsin, if you are going by one of the organizations that hasn't yet called that race. Depending on which of those views you subscribe to, it's either 48D-48R, or 48D-49R.

 

[Stingray]

And just moments after I posted that, Adam Laxalt (the R) just moved ahead in the Nevada results...

 

[Couchpotato]

The associated press live results haven't been updated or changed yet. Just another problem were different agencies and sites are not getting the same data or updates.

Yep checked five different sites all different numbers.

 

[Ripper]

Thoughts from Fox News.

Marc Thiessen: Midterm results a 'searing indictment of the Republican Party' | Fox News Video

Fox News contributor and Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen discusses the latest results from Election Day and its implications for the GOP.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Stingray]

The associated press live results haven't been updated or changed yet. Just another problem were different agencies and sites are not getting the same data or updates.

Yep checked five different sites all different numbers.

Associated Press is hosed then, everyone should be showing 48 for the D's at this point. The R's number could be between 47 and 49, depending on whether they are counting Wisconsin and Alaska yet. Some places aren't counting Alaska, because the actual winner isn't known yet. But, the two candidates in Alaska are both Republicans, so if we're talking party breakdown, there's no reason not to go ahead and add it in.

 

[Couchpotato]

Well, it doesn't seem to be any kind of 'red wave'. In fact, given the economic conditions and Biden's low popularity, it looks like a pretty weak midterm performance.

My hope is that DeSantis had been boosted, whereas a little more of the bloom is off the Trump rose. Perhaps increases the chances of a Republican split when Trump runs.

As a moderate to slightly right leaning republican I don't want the orange buffoon to run again. You know he will though given all the legal cases. He has no choice but to do so.

When he will more then likely get nominated it will be another huge republican loss again.

 

[Ripper]

I think things could get more interesting now, between Trump and DeSantis, and between the MAGA wing and the Republicans that want to put that behind them. I do actually find that quite encouraging.

 

[Couchpotato]

Associated Press is hosed then, everyone should be showing 48 for the D's at this point. The R's number could be between 47 and 49, depending on whether they are counting Wisconsin and Alaska yet. Some places aren't counting Alaska, because the actual winner isn't known yet. But, the two candidates in Alaska are both Republicans, so if we're talking party breakdown, there's no reason not to go ahead and add it in.

The Associated Press are being to cautious, Anyway the color map has changed but the agency wont declare a winner in some races. 50-50 looking likely at this point in time.

The Georgia run-off will be the key for a majority. Though like rippers video above Republicans unperformed given the current political landscape. That's says a whole lot.

Especially given some of the democrat nominees are worse.

 

[Stingray]

The Associated Press are being to cautious, Anyway the color map has changed but the ageceny wont declare a winner in some races. 50-50 looking likely at this point in time.

The Georgia run-off will be the key for a majority.

The betting odds are saying that people think 50-50 is by far the most likely outcome at the moment, but I'm not sure I understand the logic. Almost all polls in the last month or two have shown the R's winning Nevada. Then I would think Georgia is a complete toss-up. Maybe people were freaked out by the early returns in Nevada, which have now flipped.

 

[Ripper]

I think that if the Republicans actually bit the bullet now, put Trump behind them, and ran DeSantis on a relatively moderate ticket that pushed back on the left in a properly targeted way (without all the democracy-denying madness) they would have a strong shot in 24.

 

[Stingray]

As long as Biden is going to be the Democrats' nominee in '24, the Republicans will have a strong shot no matter what they do. He's historically terrible, and historically unpopular.

Then again, I don't think Biden will be running in '24 so we don't necessarily disagree

 

[Ripper]

Possibly. But I do think the message they will take away from this is that the Trump brand may not be the way forward. I was certainly expecting the red wave, given the extraordinarily bad conditions. They must be wondering how that might play out in 24, when current crises might have settled.

I can't really see how running Biden again is sensible. Then again, they ran Fetterman, which I thought was absurd, and won, so they might try it.

 

[Pladio]

51D-49R doesn't seem all that likely, although it's certainly possible. It's currently 48D-49R (putting Wisconsin in the R column - it's been called by some, but not all). Georgia is headed to a runoff in December, and Arizona and Nevada are still in play - we'll probably know the results of those two tomorrow.

Looks like the bookies are giving about an 85% chance of 50D-50R right now.

Not anymore, probably, but it's not far off either.

Current FOX news website shows 48-48 and 172D-199R in Reps.

 

[Redglyph]

I'm not familiar with this. Does a 51-49 give a clear advantage, or does it require all the 51 senators to be on the same page for that? (which may not be easy to enforce all the time?)

 

[Pladio]

I'm not familiar with this. Does a 51-49 give a clear advantage, or does it require all the 51 senators to be on the same page for that? (which may not be easy to enforce all the time?)

Since most legislation is very party-based a 51 majority tends to be enough for most big legislation. In the past a large minority of 45-48 could still pass some legislation too especially if it was approved by both parties, but now the opposite party decline anything even if they actually agree with it. So a majority is needed for almost everything.

Foreign policy is one place both parties still mostly agree on, so those then tend to pass (e.g. Ukraine aid)

 

[Redglyph]

Since most legislation is very party-based a 51 majority tends to be enough for most big legislation. In the past a large minority of 45-48 could still pass some legislation too especially if it was approved by both parties, but now the opposite party decline anything even if they actually agree with it. So a majority is needed for almost everything.

Foreign policy is one place both parties still mostly agree on, so those then tend to pass (e.g. Ukraine aid)

But all 51 must vote, then, and to vote accordingly to the party's desiderata. I was just wondering if that was not too difficult to achieve; maybe it's fine if that doesn't happen too often.

 

[JDR13]

What happened? I thought the Republicans were supposed to crush this?